Japan recently announced that it will transfer some number—reportedly “dozens”—of license-built Patriot missiles to the United States in order to bolster American missile stocks depleted by two years of supplying Ukraine in its defense against the Russian invasion.
This is Japan’s first time to export military weaponry owing to longstanding—though informal—policy restrictions.
It makes for a good headline, and some analysts view it as a significant step and a sign Japan is stepping up to its global security responsibilities.
The Missiles
The news Japan would hand over Patriot missiles raised some eyebrows among people who follow Japan’s defense.One wasn’t aware that the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) was flush with extra Patriot missiles for its own batteries.
In fact, JSDF arsenals and magazines are believed to have inadequate stocks of missiles, artillery shells, bombs, and ammunition—not at all enough of what’s needed to fight a war.
So it’s puzzling that Japan will provide the Americans with Patriot missiles when they don’t have enough for themselves.
Dozens? The number will probably turn out to be even fewer. Say, 30 or 40 missiles?
Unless these missiles have magic properties, this isn’t enough to compensate for the American missile shortfall.
A Political Move?
This all seems like a political move. One observer calls it “virtue signaling”—intended to demonstrate Japan’s support for the overstretched United States, which is heavily engaged with Ukraine and also supplying Israel with armaments.In return, the American commitment to defend Japan is “solidified.”
Viewed this way, it’s a strategic investment. Japan supplies a small number of missiles and potentially gets the full weight of available U.S. military support in return when the time comes to deal with China—and possibly North Korea and Russia.
Is This Really a Sea Change for Japan?
An optimist might point out that Japan’s willingness to export missiles (lethal weapons) made under U.S. license to the United States shows that Japan is getting over its allergy to national defense.Yes, it is progress in the sense that it has never been done before.
But one feels that Tokyo is looking to do just enough—or even a little less.
Despite plans to double defense spending, revise key defense guidelines, and order some long-range attack missiles, Japan still isn’t taking enough of the concrete steps necessary to improve its defenses. And sending along a handful of missiles to the United States doesn’t change this reality.
The JSDF, the Japanese government, and the public are not ready to fight a war.
But Aren’t You Being Overly Harsh, Newsham?
After all, Japan is making progress and finally exporting lethal weapons (sort of).That’s true. But it needed to do this—and start other defense improvements 10 years ago.
Japan doesn’t have time to dither and isn’t moving anywhere near fast enough.
Excuses are easier and still the coin of the realm in Tokyo. “Too hard,” “too expensive,” “politically difficult,” and “the constitution won’t allow it.”
But Japan has always been willing to reinterpret laws and the constitution to modify unwritten policies restricting defense activities and do what is necessary when it thinks it must.
The Americans haven’t given the Japanese a reason to think they must.
And it appears Japan’s enemies still haven’t either.
When it comes to defense, “Japan is serious about getting serious”—but not much beyond that.
A few Patriot missiles are not serious.
